Environmental Risk

Freshwater

Risks

• Effluent irrigation via pivot and pods poses a risk of nutrient and pathogen leaching if systems fail or are misapplied.

• The Awamoko Stream and on-farm ponds could be impacted by direct stock access, runoff, and sediment loss.

• Winter grazing on slopes and near drains increases the likelihood of sediment and faecal matter entering waterways.

Potential Impact

• Elevated E. coli and nutrient concentrations in surface water.

• Reduced water clarity and aquatic ecosystem health.

• Potential non-compliance with regional freshwater standards.

Mitigations

• Fence riparian buffers along streams and ponds.

• Keep effluent application within soil moisture limits and away from critical source areas in accordance with the Effluent Management Plan.

• Controlled winter grazing with stand-off areas and setbacks in accordance with the Winter Grazing Plan.

• Monitor water quality downstream for E. coli, N, P, and turbidity.

• See full Farm Environment Plan for full suite of actions. Particularly the  Waterway and CSA Management section.
  
  

Soil Health

Risks

• Intensive grazing, particularly in winter, can cause pugging and compaction, reducing water infiltration, aeration and root growth.

• Effluent and fertiliser over applications risk nutrient imbalances and soil acidification.

• Steep and slippery slopes are prone to erosion under over-application of irrigation.

Potential Impact

• Reduced pasture productivity and resilience.

• Increased runoff and sediment delivery to waterways.

• Long-term degradation of soil structure.

Mitigations

• Rotate grazing to avoid overstocking vulnerable paddocks. Avoid grazing steep paddocks in rain.

• Use soil testing (pH, Olsen P, N, K) to guide inputs.

• Apply effluent and fertiliser at rates matched to crop/pasture demand.

• See full Farm Environment Plan for full suite of actions, particularly the Soil and Nutrient Management section.

• Protect erosion-prone areas through fencing and reduced stock pressure. Some areas have been retired.

Biodiversity

Risks

• Limited riparian cover along streams and ponds reduces habitat for native species and increases vulnerability to sediment and nutrient inflows.

• Large areas in pasture provide low structural diversity for native fauna.

• Pest plants and animals can reduce habitat quality and compete with native species.

Potential Impact

• Risk of decline in native aquatic and terrestrial species presence.

• Potential loss of ecological services (pollination, pest regulation, nutrient cycling).

Mitigations

• Maintain rank grass riparian planting to filter sediment, stabilise banks and provide shade.

• Develop biodiversity zones on retired gullies.

• Control pest plants and animals.

• Monitor bird, insect, and aquatic life presence.

• See full Farm Environment Plan for full suite of actions.

Nutrients

Risks

• Dairy effluent, fertiliser, and animal urine patches are the main nutrient inputs.

• Risk of nitrate leaching on lighter soils and phosphate runoff from erosion or drainage lines.

• Carcass composting can add localised nutrient loads if not well located.

Potential Impact

• Groundwater nitrate accumulation.

• Phosphorus and nitrogen enrichment of waterways.

• Breach of environmental limits.

Mitigations

• Use expert analysis to guide fertiliser use. Adjust fertiliser rates based on regular soil test results.

• Target effluent application to paddocks with lower nutrient load and higher uptake potential.

• Site and manage deadstock composting high and dry, away from waterways and drains.

• See full Farm Environment Plan for full suite of actions, particularly the Soil and Nutrient Management section.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Risks

• Methane emissions from enteric fermentation in the dairy herd.

• Nitrous oxide emissions from urine patches and effluent application.

• Carbon dioxide emissions from fertiliser use, machinery, and electricity.

Potential Impact

• Contribution to on-farm greenhouse gas footprint and New Zealand’s agricultural emissions profile.

• Potential exposure to future emissions pricing schemes.

Mitigations

• Optimise herd efficiency (milk solids per cow) to reduce methane intensity.

• Improve nitrogen use efficiency to minimise surplus application and nitrous oxide release. 

• Monitor for new mitigation technologies becoming commercially available and proven food safe.

• Maintain shelterbelts, riparian plantings, and other permanent vegetation to store carbon. Use effluent to build organic matter, soil structure and soil depth to sequester carbon.

• Record annual fertiliser use, fuel consumption, and herd data to calculate emissions profile.

• See full Farm Environment Plan for full suite of actions, particularly the Greenhouse Gas Management Plan.

Vulnerability Assessment

Purpose and Scope

This assessment considers the vulnerability of dairy farming operations to projected climate change effects and extreme weather events. The assessment addresses potential effects on land resources, farm systems, infrastructure, freshwater quantity and quality, biodiversity values, and provision of shade and shelter for livestock.

The analysis reflects current scientific understanding that climate variability is expected to increase, with greater frequency of droughts, intense rainfall events, flooding, heatwaves, and seasonal unpredictability.

Land Resource Vulnerability

Dairy production is directly dependent on soil condition, drainage performance, and pasture resilience. Climatic change introduces several pressures on land resources.

More intense rainfall events are likely to increase soil saturation and overland flow, particularly during winter and early spring. Stock grazing under wet conditions increases the risk of pugging, soil compaction, and loss of soil structure. These effects reduce infiltration capacity and increase sediment mobilisation during storm events.

Conversely, extended dry periods are expected to result in greater soil moisture deficits. Reduced pasture growth during drought conditions may lead to increased grazing pressure, pasture persistence issues, and declining soil organic matter where supplementary feed systems are not adequately managed.

Land most vulnerable includes poorly drained soils, low-lying areas subject to flooding, and light free-draining soils susceptible to drought stress.

Farming System Vulnerability

Pasture-based dairy systems rely on relatively predictable seasonal growth patterns. Increased climatic variability disrupts feed supply reliability.

Higher temperatures and summer moisture deficits are expected to reduce persistence of traditional pasture species, particularly perennial ryegrass dominant systems. Increased incidence of pasture pests, weeds, and seasonal feed shortages may occur.

Livestock are exposed to both heat stress and cold wet conditions. Heat stress events can reduce milk production, reproductive performance, and animal health outcomes. Increased variability in pasture supply may also require greater reliance on supplementary feeding and flexible stocking management.

Farm Infrastructure Exposure

Farm infrastructure historically designed around stable climatic conditions may be increasingly exposed to damage or operational disruption.

Flooding and high rainfall events present risks to:

• effluent storage systems,

• farm races and culverts,

• bridges and fencing,

• low-lying milking platforms.

Overtopping or failure of effluent systems during extreme rainfall events poses environmental and compliance risks.

Drought conditions increase reliance on water storage, pumping systems, and reticulated supply networks. Reduced reliability of shallow groundwater sources may occur during extended dry periods.

Storm events may also interrupt electricity supply, affecting milking operations and water systems.

Adaptation Responses

Adaptation measures are likely to occur progressively through farm management adjustments and infrastructure investment.

Typical responses include:

• improved identification and management of critical source areas,

• reduced grazing intensity during wet periods,

• development of stand-off facilities,

• diversification of pasture species toward drought and heat tolerance,

• increased on-farm water storage,

• upgrading effluent systems to accommodate higher rainfall variability,

• strengthening race and drainage infrastructure.

Adaptive capacity within dairy systems is generally high where management flexibility and capital investment are available.

Effects on Water Quantity

Climate projections indicate greater variability in water availability rather than uniform decline.

Reduced summer stream flows and increased evapotranspiration are expected to increase irrigation demand. Periods of water scarcity may become more frequent, placing pressure on allocation limits and farm water security.

Intense rainfall events may not compensate for summer deficits, as increased runoff reduces effective groundwater recharge in some catchments.

Reliable water storage and efficient irrigation management are therefore increasingly important components of farm resilience.

Effects on Water Quality

Extreme weather conditions influence contaminant transport pathways.

Heavy rainfall increases the risk of sediment, nutrient, and microbial losses through surface runoff and drainage systems. Flood events may mobilise contaminants from paddocks, wintering areas, and infrastructure sites.

During drought conditions, reduced stream dilution capacity may result in higher contaminant concentrations in receiving environments.

Management practices that reduce runoff risk, including riparian margins, wetland protection, and improved nutrient management, are expected to play an increasingly important role in maintaining water quality outcomes.

Biodiversity Considerations

Climate change interacts with agricultural land use pressures affecting indigenous biodiversity and ecological function.

Potential adverse effects include loss or degradation of wetland habitats, increased spread of invasive species, and thermal stress within aquatic ecosystems. Fragmented habitats may become less resilient to climatic stressors.

Conversely, adaptation responses such as riparian planting, wetland restoration, shelterbelt establishment, and native vegetation enhancement provide opportunities to improve ecological connectivity and resilience across farm landscapes.

Shade and Shelter

Provision of shade and shelter is expected to become increasingly significant as temperatures rise and weather extremes intensify.

Livestock exposed to elevated temperatures experience reduced productivity and welfare outcomes. Shelterbelts also play a role in reducing wind exposure, limiting soil moisture loss, and improving pasture utilisation.

Storm damage and ageing shelter plantings may reduce existing shade resources unless active replacement programmes are undertaken. Establishment of diversified shelter systems, including riparian and paddock tree planting, contributes to both climate adaptation and biodiversity outcomes.

Summary

Dairy farming systems are sensitive to climatic variability due to reliance on pasture growth, soil condition, and water availability. Climate change is expected to increase exposure to both drought and extreme rainfall events, creating risks to land productivity, infrastructure performance, freshwater environments, and livestock welfare.

Vulnerability is greatest where farms lack water storage, have limited shade or shelter, or operate on soils prone to saturation or moisture deficit. However, the sector retains significant capacity to adapt through management change, infrastructure upgrades, and integration of environmental enhancement measures.

Long-term resilience will depend on proactive adaptation, integrated land and water management, and continued improvement of farm environmental systems.

Below is an adaptation plan written in a conventional rural consultancy / farm planning format, suitable for inclusion as a stand-alone section in a Farm Environment Plan, consent application, climate risk assessment, or infrastructure resilience strategy. The structure avoids promotional or AI-style wording and reflects typical New Zealand planning documentation.

Climate Adaptation Plan 

Objective

The purpose of this adaptation plan is to reduce vulnerability of dairy farming operations to climate change and extreme weather events while maintaining farm productivity, protecting freshwater values, supporting biodiversity outcomes, and improving animal welfare.

The plan adopts a risk management approach focused on land resources, farming systems, infrastructure resilience, water management, ecological function, and provision of shade and shelter.

Climate Risks Addressed

The primary climate-related risks identified are:

• Increased frequency of drought and seasonal moisture deficits.

• More intense rainfall events and flooding.

• Greater climatic variability affecting pasture growth.

• Elevated temperatures and livestock heat stress.

• Increased pressure on water resources.

• Greater risk of contaminant losses to freshwater environments.

Land Management Adaptation

Drought Resilience

Actions:

• Irrigate pastures

• Maintain pasture residuals to protect soil moisture.

• Develop contingency feed budgets for extended dry periods.

Outcomes:

• Improved pasture persistence.

• Greater feed supply stability.

• Reduced soil degradation during drought conditions.

Farming System Adaptation

Stocking and Feed Management

Actions:

• Maintain flexible stocking policies allowing adjustment during adverse seasons.

• Align calving and lactation timing with evolving pasture growth patterns.

• Monitor supplementary feed storage capacity.

Outcomes:

• Reduced production risk.

• Improved animal condition and welfare.

• Greater operational flexibility.

Animal Welfare and Heat Stress Management

Actions:

• Increase access to natural or artificial shade.

• Provide reliable reticulated water supply across grazing areas.

• Adjust grazing rotations during heatwaves.

• Monitor livestock behaviour during extreme weather events.

Outcomes:

• Reduced heat stress impacts.

• Improved milk production stability.

• Enhanced animal welfare performance.

Infrastructure Adaptation

Farm Access and Services

Actions:

• Maintain culverts and crossings to accommodate higher peak flows.

• Continue farm track construction and drainage.

Outcomes:

• Improved operational continuity.

• Reduced storm damage costs.

• Increased system reliability.

Water Storage and Supply

Actions:

• Improve efficiency of irrigation systems.

• Develop contingency water supply plans.

Outcomes:

• Improved drought resilience.

• Reduced pressure on freshwater resources.

Water Quantity Management

Actions:

• Continue soil moisture monitoring to optimise irrigation.

• Adopt deficit irrigation strategies where appropriate.

• Minimise compaction.

Outcomes:

• Reduced water demand during scarcity.

• Improved long-term water security.

Water Quality Protection

Actions:

• Maintain and extend riparian margins along waterways.

• Establish buffer zones in critical runoff areas.

• Manage vulnerable paddocks during high-risk seasons.

Outcomes:

• Reduced nutrient, sediment, and pathogen losses.

• Improved resilience of receiving water bodies during extreme events.

Biodiversity Adaptation Measures

Actions:

• Protect existing wetlands and natural drainage features.

• Establish native riparian planting corridors.

• Integrate shelterbelt planting with ecological connectivity objectives.

• Control invasive species likely to expand under warmer conditions.

Outcomes:

• Increased habitat resilience.

• Improved ecosystem function.

• Enhanced landscape-scale biodiversity values.

Shade and Shelter Strategy

Actions:

• Maintain and replace ageing shelter plantings.

• Utilise gully areas for shelter.

• Design shelter placement to reduce wind exposure and soil moisture loss.

Outcomes:

• Reduced livestock heat stress.

• Improved pasture microclimate.

• Additional biodiversity benefits.

Implementation Approach

Adaptation measures are intended to be implemented progressively through normal farm development cycles. Priority is given to actions that simultaneously:

• reduce climate vulnerability,

• improve environmental outcomes,

• maintain farm productivity, and

• enhance long-term system resilience.